Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 6th, 2023

Carmelo Mamertino • December 6, 2023

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

December 6, 2023

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5¼% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.

The global economy continues to slow and inflation has eased further. In the United States, growth has been stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending, but is likely to weaken in the months ahead as past policy rate increases work their way through the economy. Growth in the euro area has weakened and, combined with lower energy prices, this has reduced inflationary pressures. Oil prices are about $10-per-barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have also eased, with long-term interest rates unwinding some of the sharp increases seen earlier in the autumn. The US dollar has weakened against most currencies, including Canada’s.

In Canada, economic growth stalled through the middle quarters of 2023. Real GDP contracted at a rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, following growth of 1.4% in the second quarter. Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year. Exports and inventory adjustment subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter, while government spending and new home construction provided a boost. The labour market continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth, job vacancies have declined further, and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Even so, wages are still rising by 4-5%. Overall, these data and indicators for the fourth quarter suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.

The slowdown in the economy is reducing inflationary pressures in a broadening range of goods and services prices. Combined with the drop in gasoline prices, this contributed to the easing of CPI inflation to 3.1% in October. However, shelter price inflation has picked up, reflecting faster growth in rent and other housing costs along with the continued contribution from elevated mortgage interest costs. In recent months, the Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3½-4%, with the October data coming in towards the lower end of this range.

With further signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Bank’s balance sheet. Governing Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed. Governing Council wants to see further and sustained easing in core inflation, and continues to focus on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 24, 2024. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR at the same time.

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Carmelo Mamertino

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Jan 28th, 2026

By Carmelo Mamertino • January 28, 2026

Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2¼%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario January 28, 2026 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. The outlook for the global and Canadian economies is little changed relative to the projection in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, the outlook is vulnerable to unpredictable US trade policies and geopolitical risks. Economic growth in the United States continues to outpace expectations and is projected to remain solid, driven by AI-related investment and consumer spending. Tariffs are pushing up US inflation, although their effect is expected to fade gradually later this year. In the euro area, growth has been supported by activity in service sectors and will get additional support from fiscal policy. China’s GDP growth is expected to slow gradually, as weakening domestic demand offsets strength in exports. Overall, the Bank expects global growth to average about 3% over the projection horizon. Global financial conditions have remained accommodative overall. Recent weakness in the US dollar has pushed the Canadian dollar above 72 cents, roughly where it had been since the October MPR. Oil prices have been fluctuating in response to geopolitical events and, going forward, are assumed to be slightly below the levels in the October report. US trade restrictions and uncertainty continue to disrupt growth in Canada. After a strong third quarter, GDP growth in the fourth quarter likely stalled. Exports continue to be buffeted by US tariffs, while domestic demand appears to be picking up. Employment has risen in recent months. Still, the unemployment rate remains elevated at 6.8% and relatively few businesses say they plan to hire more workers. Economic growth is projected to be modest in the near term as population growth slows and Canada adjusts to US protectionism. In the projection, consumer spending holds up and business investment strengthens gradually, with fiscal policy providing some support. The Bank projects growth of 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, broadly in line with the October projection. A key source of uncertainty is the upcoming review of the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement. CPI inflation picked up in December to 2.4%, boosted by base-year effects linked to last winter’s GST/HST holiday. Excluding the effect of changes in taxes, inflation has been slowing since September. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation have eased from 3% in October to around 2½% in December. Inflation was 2.1% in 2025 and the Bank expects inflation to stay close to the 2% target over the projection period, with trade-related cost pressures offset by excess supply. Monetary policy is focused on keeping inflation close to the 2% target while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate, conditional on the economy evolving broadly in line with the outlook we published today. However, uncertainty is heightened and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 18, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released on April 29, 2026. Read the January 28th, 2026 Monetary Report

Divorce and Your Mortgage: What You Need to Know

By Carmelo Mamertino • January 21, 2026

Going Through a Separation? Here’s What You Need to Know About Your Mortgage Separation or divorce can be one of life’s most stressful transitions—and when real estate is involved, the financial side of things can get complicated fast. If you and your partner own a home together, figuring out what happens next with your mortgage is a critical step in moving forward. Here’s what you need to know: You’re Still Responsible for Mortgage Payments Even if your relationship changes, your obligation to your mortgage lender doesn’t. If your name is on the mortgage, you’re fully responsible for making sure payments continue. Missed payments can lead to penalties, damage your credit, or even put your home at risk of foreclosure. If you relied on your partner to handle payments during the relationship, now is the time to take a proactive role. Contact your lender directly to confirm everything is on track. Breaking or Changing Your Mortgage Comes With Costs Dividing your finances might mean refinancing, removing someone from the title, or selling the home. All of these options come with potential legal fees, appraisal costs, and mortgage penalties—especially if you’re mid-term with a fixed-rate mortgage. Before making any decisions, speak with your lender to get a clear picture of the potential costs. This info can be helpful when finalizing your separation agreement. Legal Status Affects Financing If you're applying for a new mortgage after a separation, lenders will want to see official documentation—like a signed separation agreement or divorce decree. These documents help the lender assess any ongoing financial obligations like child or spousal support, which may impact your ability to qualify. No paperwork yet? Expect delays and added scrutiny in the mortgage process until everything is finalized. Qualifying on One Income Can Be Tougher Many couples qualify for mortgages based on combined income. After a separation, your borrowing power may decrease if you're now applying solo. This can affect your ability to buy a new home or stay in the one you currently own. A mortgage professional can help you reassess your financial picture and identify options that make sense for your situation—whether that means buying on your own, co-signing with a family member, or exploring government programs. Buying Out Your Partner? You May Have Extra Flexibility In cases where one person wants to stay in the home, lenders may offer special flexibility. Unlike traditional refinancing, which typically caps borrowing at 80% of the home’s value, a “spousal buyout” may allow you to access up to 95%—making it easier to compensate your former partner and retain the home. This option is especially useful for families looking to minimize disruption for children or maintain community ties. You Don’t Have to Figure It Out Alone Separation is never simple—but with the right support, you can move forward with clarity and confidence. Whether you’re keeping the home, selling, or starting fresh, working with a mortgage professional can help you understand your options and create a strategy that aligns with your new goals. Let’s talk through your situation and explore the best path forward. I’m here to help.